- Cardano is tracking its Q3 2024 breakout pattern. Holding above its Feb 3 low signals strength.
- If the fractal holds, a $2.5 breakout in May is plausible.
Unlike other high-cap altcoins, Cardano [ADA] remains 96% above its pre-election levels. On the 1D chart, the $0.59–$0.70 support zone has been tested three times in the past sixty days, each time confirming strong buy-side absorption.
Interestingly, this price structure closely mirrors Cardano’s Q3 2024 breakout cycle, where a series of higher lows following a key dip paved the way for its two-year high of $1.32.
Source: TradingView (ADA/USDT)
However, in the current market environment, ADA is likely to retest the sub-$ 0.60 support. At press time, the RSI was trending downward without reaching oversold levels.
This suggests fading bullish momentum, making further sell-side pressure more likely before reaccumulation kicks in. Yet, a confirmed Q3-style breakout remains elusive.
While historical patterns indicate strong buy-side absorption at key liquidity zones, a decisive break above key resistance levels is required to validate bullish continuation.
Analysts speculate that if Cardano follows this trajectory, a breakout toward $2.50 could unfold in Q2.
Odds of Cardano’s repeat rally: Key levels and market structure
Unlike Cardano’s dip on the 28th of February to $0.63, which triggered a volume spike to a yearly high of 7.36 billion, the recent drop to $0.65 lacks similar buy-side interest, with only 500 million traded.
This divergence reinforces AMBCrypto’s outlook for further downside while highlighting the prevailing risk-off sentiment.
In other words, despite a historically strong liquidity sweep, buy-side absorption remains weak, suggesting a lack of conviction among bulls at current levels.
Source: Santiment
The upcoming sessions will play a pivotal role in determining whether Cardano’s historical market structure remains intact. A rebound from the $0.60 demand zone could pave the way for a near-term retest of the $0.73 resistance level.
Simultaneously, the ADA/BTC pair is nearing a crucial inflection point, potentially signaling a breakout from its prolonged monthly downtrend.
As Bitcoin contends with Q2 volatility, a shift in capital rotation toward altcoins could bolster ADA’s relative performance against BTC, further enhancing its breakout prospects.
Considering historical patterns, robust support levels, and technical confluence, a retest of key resistance levels appears increasingly plausible.
However, for Cardano to achieve a Q3-style breakout, it must solidify its dominance against Bitcoin[BTC], enabling a potential 100%+ rally toward $2.50 in Q2—a critical trend to observe in the coming weeks.