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Crypto analyst Melika Trader has warned of a volume drop that could trigger a 60% Bitcoin price crash. The analyst provided an in-depth analysis of what this price crash could mean and if it would mark the end of the bull run.
How The Bitcoin Price Could Crash By 60% And Drop To $49,000
In a TradingView post, Melika Trader revealed how the Bitcoin price could crash by 60% and drop to $49,000. The analyst noted that BTC is hanging just above a critical support zone, an area he claimed many traders recognize as the “most important support level” from a volume perspective on Binance.
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His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could suffer a 60% drop once it loses the former trend line at $75,000. The flagship crypto is also in danger, having lost the critical support at around $83,000. This drop to $49,000 would bring BTC back toward the high-volume range near $30,000.
This provides an ultra-bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price. However, Melika Trader raised a twist, stating that only 20% of traders might actually lose. He noted that, according to Binance’s volume profile data, the majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000.
The analyst further mentioned that most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022/2023 accumulation range. The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) is also said to show significant support below the current Bitcoin price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels. Melika Trader remarked that only a minority of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70,000.
Meanwhile, the majority of investors are still in profit or break-even, even if the Bitcoin price retraces back to its base. As such, most traders are safe, as BTC risks a drop to as low as $49,000.
Why BTC’s Bull Market Is Over
CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently asserted that BTC’s bull market is over amid the Bitcoin price decline. He alluded to the ‘Realized Cap’ metric to explain his confidence that the bull run is over. The CryptoQuant CEO noted that if Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in but prices aren’t rising.
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Ki Young Ju noted that this is a clear bearish signal, and this is what is currently happening. Capital is entering the market right now, but the Bitcoin price isn’t responding, which he claims is typical of a bear market. The CryptoQuant CEO explained that even large purchases like MicroStrategy’s aren’t pushing prices up because there is too much sell pressure at the moment.
Ki Young Ju again affirmed that current data points to the Bitcoin price being in a bear market. He noted that sell pressure could ease anytime but warned that historically, real reversals take at least six months. As such, the CryptoQuant CEO believes a short-term rally seems unlikely.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com